Economy
There's a lot to unpack from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week. This was likely Jerome Powell's final meeting as Chair, but he commented that he will remain on as a Fed governor as President Trump's pick Kevin Warsh steps in to head the FOMC. The Fed's decision to leave interest rates unchanged this week was widely expected, but we are seeing division amongst the ranks. Both the decision on interest rates and the statement announcing the decision have to be voted on by the members of the committee. The vote for this decision was 8-4, the highest level of dissent in over 30 years. Of the 4 "no" votes, Stephen Miran, a Trump appointment serving since September 2025, voted for a cut to interest rates as he has at every meeting since joining the committee. The other 3 "no" votes came from Fed governors that agreed with the decision to leave rates unchanged but disagreed with part of the announcement that suggested the next change would be an interest rate cut. Following a year in which we saw the Fed cut rates 3 times, it now appears unlikely that we will see any change to interest rates in 2026. The FOMC's next meeting won't take place until mid-June, and we'll be hearing from and seeing a new face in Kevin Warsh, who President Trump is hoping will sway the committee to bring interest rates down further. Between dissenting governors and persistent inflation, he'll have his work cut (no pun intended) out for him.
Markets
We're watching some very strong results from businesses reporting earnings this quarter. John Butters at FactSetdoes a great job covering the numbers. Over the last ten years, the average earnings season sees about 76% of companies beat their earnings expectations by a margin of about 7%. While we are only about two-thirds of the way through earnings season, we're seeing 84% of companies beat the analyst numbers with earnings coming in more than 20% above expectations. Despite the Magnificent Seven stocks having a less-than magnificent start to the year, the S&P 500 made another all-time on Friday, gaining 0.91% for the week and bringing the year-to-date gain to 6%. Small cap stocks have fared even better, up double digits through the first four months of the year.

What We're Reading
- Horse Racing Fans Are Old. He Aims to Change That. - WSJ
- The Worst Year to Retire Wasn’t 1929. - Barron's
Have a great weekend.
Dogwood Wealth Management
