Economy
There was some good economic news from the Bureau of Labor Statistics - there were 178,000 jobs added to the economy in March, far surpassing the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 59,000. Job gains were seen in health care and construction, while declines were measured in federal government workers. The March number was the highest since 2024 and is encouraging as we've averaged just 21,000 jobs per month over the trailing 12 month period. The unemployment rate declined to 4.3% last month, but that could be attributed to a decline in the labor force participation rate, which has fallen to the lowest level since November 2021. The March jobs report did little to change Wall Street's expectations on the Fed's interest rate moves by the end of the year. Compared to a week ago, the CME FedWatch Tool showed a decline in probability from 72% to 69% of no change in rates by the December FOMC meeting.
Markets
The S&P 500 rose 3.36% over the 4-day trading week, snapping the losing streak of 5 weeks. The move higher might suggest markets are clinging on to anything that might be interpreted as positive developments with the Iran war. The S&P 500 is only down 5% from the February highs which seems incredible with the spike in oil prices. The year got off to a good start for the stock market, but AI concerns and the Iran war led to the worst quarter for stocks in 4 years.
We're heading in to earnings season, and remarkably financial analysts have been raising their expectations for corporate earnings over the last several weeks. FactSet reports that the S&P 500 companies are expected to see double-digit growth in earnings for the sixth consecutive quarter.
What We're Reading
- They’re Rich but Not Famous—and They’re Suddenly Everywhere - WSJ
- Managing Long-Term Care Risk in Retirement- Retirement Researcher
Have a great weekend.
Dogwood Wealth Management