Week In Review

Jason Newcomer CFP®, EA, AIF®

December 14, 2024

Economy

Inflation rose to 2.7% last month, matching expectations. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, came in at 3.3%. We've seen core prices rise 0.3% for three consecutive months now, a sign that getting inflation down to the Fed's target of 2% will be challenging. We'll hear from the chairman next week on the 18th when the Federal Open Market Committee meets to determine it's next decision. A rate cut of 0.25% is widely expected, with the current probability of a rate cut sitting at 96% according to the CME Group. Beyond this next meeting, however, is where things could get interesting. The FOMC won't meet again until late January, a few weeks after the incoming administration takes charge. Presently, the CME Group's FedWatch tool shows the greatest probability of a Fed pause, meaning they'll hold rates where they are in January.

Markets

The S&P 500 finished 0.64% lower for the week ending 12/13. With only a few weeks left, it's been an incredible year for stocks. We're starting to see 2025 year-end targets come in from financial analysts predicting what they think will happen in the markets. Take these with a spoonful of salt. This time last year, the average target for the S&P 500 for 2024 was somewhere around 4,900. While that's still technically possible, we're sitting at 6,050, about 24% higher than the experts had predicted. The same thing happened in 2023 when the consensus opinion was we were going to have a recession (spoiler: we did not).

Other News

A client of ours was recently on the trip of a lifetime in Africa and took some amazing photos. Thank you for sharing them with us. The best part of our jobs is seeing the people we care about living their best lives.

What We're Reading

Strengthening Inflation Poses Challenge for Trump, Fed - WSJ
There's Really No Losers in This Game - WTOP

Have a great weekend.

Dogwood Wealth Management